CRT Deal Monitor: Understanding When Credit Becomes Risky

This analysis tracks several metrics related to deal performance and credit profile, putting them into a historical context by comparing the same metrics for recent-vintage deals against those of ‘similar’ cohorts in the time leading up to the 2008 housing crisis. You’ll see how credit metrics are trending today and understand the significance of today’s…

Hands-On Machine Learning–Predicting Loan Delinquency

The ability of machine learning models to predict loan performance makes them particularly interesting to lenders and fixed-income investors. This expanded post provides an example of applying the machine learning process to a loan-level dataset in order to predict delinquency. The process includes variable selection, model selection, model evaluation, and model tuning. The data used...

Big Data in Small Dimensions: Machine Learning Methods for Data Visualization

Analysts and data scientists are constantly seeking new ways to parse increasingly intricate datasets, many of which are deemed “high dimensional”, i.e., contain many (sometimes hundreds or more) individual variables. Machine learning has recently emerged as one such technique due to its exceptional ability to process massive quantities of data. A particularly useful machine learning...

An Introduction to Machine Learning

There are two main challenges when implementing a machine learning solution: building a model that performs well and effectively leveraging the results. Having a good understanding of the machine learning process and model being used is key to tackling both issues. Using a predictive model without appropriately understanding it can substantially increase risk and lead to missed opportunities. If the performance of a model is unclear, misunderstood, or overestimated then subsequent decisions will be biased or outright wrong. Likewise, if the ability of a model is underestimated then its use will not be optimized.