Linkedin    Twitter   Facebook

Get Started
Log In

Linkedin

Articles Tagged with: Prepayment Analytics
Home / Blog Archives

Non-QM Credit Stress by the Numbers: Investor and Full Doc Loan Performance Diverge

This is a follow-up to Bernadette Kogler’s short piece last month on stress in the Non-QM mortgage market. In this post, I use the CoreLogic Non-Agency loan data to split out the Non-QM population by loan type and look at the relative delinquency performance of mortgages backed by Investor properties vs. loans with full documentation vs. other Non-QM loan types (this last bucket comprises mainly Bank Statement loans).

As the following chart illustrates, the non-performing delinquency rate (60+ dpd loans as a percentage of the overall population) has risen from a post-COVID low of 1.01% to 3.59% as of March 2025. This increase has been driven by deterioration in the credit performance across all Non-QM loan types. Notably, the delinquency rate for Investor loans increased to 3.82% as of March, up more than three-fold from post-COVID lows of 1.1% in October 2022. While they remain the best performing loan type, even the Full Doc loans have seen a doubling of delinquency rate, to 1.11%.

The other driver of the sharp uptick in delinquency rates for the Aggregate Non-QM loan population is a shift in their mix away from the strongly performing Full Doc loans. As shown in the graph below, Full Doc loans as a percentage of the overall NQM mix have fallen from over 50% of NQM population as of the end of 2018 to only 22% in March. Meanwhile, Investor loans have increased from only 3% of the Non-QM population as of the end of 2018 to 10% just before COVID to 28% as of March.

Finally, we look at the gateway transition of mortgages to non-performing status: the current to 30 roll rates, or the percentage of current loans that roll to 30 days delinquent in any given month due to a missed payment. Not surprisingly, these trends are broadly in line with what we see for the overall delinquency rates: roll rates have increased significantly since their late 2022 lows.

But these roll rates give us a more real-time perspective on how different loan types are performing relative to each other than the delinquency rate levels, which represent the cumulative effect of historical performance. In the most recent remittance data, Investor-backed loans experienced a 1.42% C->30 roll rate, which was 2.5x the 0.58% roll rate experienced by Full Doc Non-QM loans. By contrast, that multiple was only 1.8x in October 2022 when NQM loans were experiencing their lowest post-COVID roll rate performance.

Given the deteriorating performance of Non-QM mortgages and backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty, it is important for investors to monitor their portfolios that have Non-QM exposure. Our credit models at RiskSpan model these delinquency roll rates directly, and our modeling team calibrates our suite of models to capture both the overall trends and the differentiated performance across loan and product types. These models are just one component of our scaled analytics solutions to help our clients evaluate risk and make investment decisions.

Contact me to discuss.

Mortgage Prepayment and Credit Trends to Watch

Register here for our next monthly model update call: Thursday, April 17th at 1:00 ET.

Note: This post contains highlights from our March 2025 monthly modeling call. You can register here to watch a recording of the full 28-minute call.

Mortgage and credit markets remain dynamic in early 2025, with macroeconomic conditions driving both volatility and opportunity. In yesterday’s monthly model call, my team and I shared key insights into current market trends, model performance, and what to expect in the coming months.

Market Snapshot: A Mixed Bag

After trending downward in February, mortgage rates ticked up slightly in early March. Despite the fluctuation, expectations are for rates to remain relatively stable until at least summer 2025. Most mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are still deeply out of the money, making housing turnover—not rate refinancing—the dominant prepayment driver.

Macroeconomic signals remain mixed. While unemployment is still low and wage growth continues, inflation shows signs of persistence. The Fed is expected to hold the Fed Funds Rate steady through mid-year, with a potential first cut projected for June. Credit usage is creeping higher—especially in second liens and credit cards—hinting at growing consumer debt stress.

Model Performance and Updates

Prepayment Model

RiskSpan’s prepayment model continues to track closely with actuals across Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae collateral. The model shows:

  • Prepayments rising slightly, particularly among 2023 vintage loans in response to rate moves.
  • Delinquent loan behavior providing rich insights: For “out of the money” (OTM) collateral, delinquent loans are showing higher turnover speeds than performing ones, as borrowers try to avoid foreclosure.
  • Turnover sensitivity to borrower FICO scores is especially pronounced for delinquent loans—highlighting the need for granular credit analytics.

These behavioral insights are informing the next version of our prepayment model, which will incorporate GSE data research to enhance forecast accuracy.

Credit Model v7: A Leap Forward

RiskSpan’s new Credit Model v7—now available—is a significant upgrade, built on a delinquency transition matrix framework. This state-transition approach enables monthly projections of:

  • Conditional Default Rates (CDR)
  • Conditional Prepayment Rates (CPR)
  • Loss severity and liquidated balances
  • Scheduled and total principal & interest (P&I)

The model’s core components include:

  • A vector-based severity model
  • A robust liquidation timeline module
  • Loan-level outputs by delinquency state (including foreclosure and REO)

By modeling the lifecycle of loans and MSRs more explicitly, Credit Model v7 delivers deeper insight into portfolio credit performance, even in volatile markets.

Emerging Risks and Opportunities

Consumer credit balances—especially HELs and HELOCs—have grown significantly, fueled in part by debt consolidation. Credit card utilization has jumped from 22% in 2020 to nearly 30% as of late 2024, indicating growing financial strain.

Meanwhile, delinquencies in the Non-QM space (2022-2023 vintages) are rising—suggesting that investors need enhanced tools to monitor and manage these risks. RiskSpan’s tools, including the enhanced credit model and daily prepay monitoring, help investors keep pace with these shifting dynamics.

Looking Ahead

RiskSpan’s modeling team remains focused on:

  • Continuing to improve prepayment modeling with newly available GSE data
  • Rolling out and enhancing Credit Model v7 for broader use cases
  • Providing clients with forward-looking analytics to anticipate credit stress and capitalize on market dislocations

Be sure to register for next month’s model update call on Thursday, April 17th at 1:00 ET.

Want a deeper dive into the new Credit Model or Prepay insights? Contact me to schedule a session with our modeling experts.

Get a Demo or Free Trial of RiskSpan’s Platform

February 2025 Model Update: Mortgage Prepayment and Credit Trends to Watch

Note: This post contains highlights from our February 2025 monthly modeling call. You can register here to watch a recording of the full call (approx. 25 mins).

As we move further into 2025, key trends are emerging in the mortgage and credit markets, shaping risk management strategies for lenders, investors, and policymakers alike. RiskSpan’s latest model update highlights critical developments in mortgage prepayments, credit performance, and consumer debt trends—offering valuable insights for investors, traders, and portfolio/risk managers in these spaces.

Prepayment speeds have continued to decline in Q1 2025, largely due to a lack of housing turnover and persistently high mortgage rates. While a drop in rates during Q3 2024 temporarily mitigated lock-in effects for borrowers with very low rates, MBS speeds remain low across most cohorts.

Key drivers of observed prepayment behavior include:

  • Mortgage rates are expected to stay high (~6.5%+) throughout 2025, keeping refinancing activity muted.
  • Turnover remains the primary driver of prepayments, with most MBS pools significantly out of the money.
  • RiskSpan’s Prepayment Model v3.7 effectively captures these dynamics, particularly the impact of deep out-of-the-money (OTM) speeds based on moneyness.

Growth in Non-QM and Second Lien Originations

The private credit market continues to expand, with increasing Non-QM and second lien originations. However, a concerning delinquency trend has emerged, with delinquencies among 2022-2023 Non-QM vintages now rising faster than among older vintages.

Consumer Debt Pressures Mounting

Consumer debt continues to rise rapidly, raising concerns about long-term credit performance:

  • Credit card balances have increased significantly, with utilization climbing from 22% in 2020 to 30% by late 2024.
  • More consumers are turning to personal loans for debt consolidation, a sign of financial strain.
  • Second liens (HEL/HELOCs) are being used to pay off high-interest debt, fueled by strong home equity growth since 2020.

Model Enhancements

To address these evolving market conditions, RiskSpan has rolled out key enhancements to its mortgage and credit models:

  • Prepayment Model v3.7 – Captures deep out-of-the-money lock-in effects with improved accuracy across Fannie, Freddie, and Ginnie collateral.
  • Credit Model v7 – Introduces a Delinquency Transition Matrix, providing more granular forecasting for loans and MSR valuation.
  • Non-QM Prepayment Model – Developed using CoreLogic data, offering improved prepayment insights for Non-QM loans.

Looking Ahead

  • Rates are likely to remain high, with no reductions expected before summer.
  • Home equity growth remains strong, driving continued second lien origination.
  • Debt servicing costs are beginning to strain consumers, as high interest rates persist.
  • Delinquency rates show strong correlation to credit quality, signaling potential risks ahead.

The evolving mortgage and credit landscape underscores the importance of robust modeling and risk assessment. With prepayments slowing, debt burdens rising, and consumer credit trends shifting, lenders and investors must adapt their strategies accordingly.

RiskSpan Introduces Enhanced Non-QM Prepayment Model Leveraging Loan-Level Data

Arlington, VA – February 18, 2025 – RiskSpan, a leading provider of innovative trading, risk management and data analytics for loans, securities and private credit, has announced the release of its latest Non-QM Prepayment Model (Version 3.11), incorporating CoreLogic’s loan-level non-QM performance data. This update significantly enhances prepayment forecasting accuracy for non-QM loans and mortgage-backed securities by leveraging a robust, segmented modeling approach.

RiskSpan’s new non-QM prepayment model introduces a two-component framework that improves the precision of prepayment predictions:

  • The first component is a Unified Turnover Model, designed to capture base prepayment trends.
  • The second component, a Refinance Model Categorized by Documentation Type, is capable of distinguishing among and modeling behavioral characteristics specific to bank statement, debt service coverage ratio/investor, full documentation, and other documentation types

The model is built on loan performance data spanning October 2019 to March 2024 and intelligently incorporates long-term prepayment behavior with conventional loans, addressing the challenge of limited non-QM data history. Key enhancements include:

  • Sensitivity to SATO (Spread at Origination) and Burnout Effects, refining prepayment behavior projections.
  • DSCR-Specific Adjustments, incorporating prepayment penalty terms and amounts to refine refinance calculations.

By integrating granular loan-level insights from CoreLogic, this release enhances market participants’ ability to accurately assess non-QM prepayment risk, optimize portfolio strategies, and improve secondary market pricing.

“Our latest model delivers a more precise view of non-QM borrower behavior, equipping market participants with the insights needed to manage risk effectively,” said Divas Sanwal, Senior Managing Director and RiskSpan’s Head of Modeling. “By leveraging CoreLogic’s expansive dataset and an expansive GSE dataset, we’re enabling investors to better anticipate prepayment trends and make more informed decisions.” The new model is now available for integration into RiskSpan’s Platform.

The new model is now available for integration into RiskSpan’s Platform.

About RiskSpan

RiskSpan delivers a single analytics solution for structured finance and private credit investors of any size to confidently make faster, more precise trading and portfolio risk decisions and meet reporting requirements with fewer resources, and less time spent managing multiple vendors and internal solutions.   Learn more at www.riskspan.com.

Preparing For Impact: How Will Non-QM Prepay Speeds React to Lower Rates?

In a recent post, we addressed some of the less obvious ways in which a lower interest rate environment is likely to impact an agency universe with such a large volume of loans that are still out-of-the-money to refinance. In this post, we turn our attention to non-QM loans, whose unique characteristics mean they will likely feel the coming rate cuts differently.

Understanding the Distinctive Prepayment Dynamics of Non-QM Loans

Non-QM loans cater to borrowers who do not meet the stringent criteria of traditional agency loans, often due to factors like non-standard income documentation, credit issues, or investment property financing. Non-QM loans generally carry higher interest rates, and, unlike their agency counterparts, many have prepayment penalties designed to protect lenders from early payoff risk. Non-QM loans are also more likely than agency loans to involve investment properties – and thus, the underlying mortgages are not subject to the same “ability to repay” constraints that apply to agency/QM loans.

All these factors play a role in forecasting prepay speeds.

As rates decline, the incentive for some non-QM borrowers to refinance should increase, but several unique factors will shape the extent to which borrowers respond to this incentive:

  1. Prepayment Penalties: Many non-QM loans, especially those structured as Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) loans for investment properties, include prepayment penalties that can deter refinancing despite a favorable rate environment. These penalties vary widely, from a fixed percentage over a set period to declining penalties over time. The economic calculus for borrowers will hinge on whether the potential savings from refinancing outweigh these penalties
  2. Diverse Loan Structures: The non-QM market includes a variety of loan products, such as 40-year terms, hybrid ARMs and loans with interest-only periods, reminiscent of the pre-2008 lending landscape. This diversity means that not all non-QM loans will see the same incentive to refinance and the slope of the mortgage curve will matter. For example, loans with higher rates are likely to exhibit a stronger refinance response, particularly as the shape of the mortgage rate curve plays a significant role, with hybrid ARMs resetting off short-term rates and 30-year fixed-rate mortgages being influenced by movements in the 10-year Treasury yield
  3. Interest Rate Spread Compression: Historically, the spread between non-QM and agency mortgage rates has varied significantly, ranging from 100 to 300 basis points. A narrowing of this spread, driven by falling rates, could heighten the refinance incentive for non-QM borrowers, leading to faster prepayment speeds. However, the extent of this spread compression is uncertain and will depend on broader market dynamics. Souring economic conditions, for example, would likely contribute to a widening of spreads.

Key Factors Influencing Non-QM Prepayment Speeds

Loan Characteristics and Documentation Types

Non-QM loans can vary significantly by documentation type, such as full documentation, bank statements, or DSCR. Historically, as illustrated in the following chart, full documentation loans have shown faster prepayment speeds, because these borrowers are closer to qualifying for agency refinancing options as rates drop.

S-Curves by Doc Type (Full vs. Alt. vs. Bank Statement vs. DSCR)

Unlike agency mortgages, which include a substantial volume of loans originated at much lower rates, the non-QM market predominantly consists of loans originated in the past few years when rates were already elevated. As a result, a larger portion of non-QM loans is closer to being “in the money” for refinancing. This distinction suggests that the non-QM sector may see a more pronounced increase in prepayment activity compared to agency loans, where the lock-in effect remains stronger.

S-Curve (line) vs UPB (bars) by Refi Incentive

Economic Sensitivity to Rate Moves

For many non-QM borrowers, the primary barrier to agency loan qualification—whether credit score, income documentation, or property type—remains static despite lower rates. Thus, while a rate cut could improve the appeal of refinancing into another non-QM product, it might not significantly shift these borrowers towards agency loans. However, as noted, those closer to the threshold of agency eligibility could still be enticed to refinance if the rate spread and penalty structures align favorably.

Conclusion

The coming interest rate cuts are poised to influence the non-QM market in unique ways, with prepayment speeds likely to increase as borrowers seek to capitalize on lower rates. However, the interplay of rate spreads, prepayment penalties, and diverse loan structures will create a complex landscape where not all non-QM loans will behave uniformly. For lenders and investors, understanding these nuances is crucial to accurately forecasting prepayment risk and managing portfolios in a changing rate environment.

As the market evolves, ongoing analysis and model updates will be essential to capturing the shifting dynamics within the non-QM space, ensuring that investors and traders are well-prepared for the impacts of the anticipated rate cuts. Contact us to learn how RiskSpan’s Edge Platform is helping a growing number of non-QM investors get loan-level insights like never before.

Is Your Prepay Analysis Ready for the Rate Cut?

The forthcoming Federal Reserve interest rate cuts loom large in minds of mortgage traders and originators. The only remaining question is by how much rates will be cut. As the economy cools and unemployment rises, recent remarks by the Fed Chair have made the expectation of rate cuts essentially universal, with the market quickly repricing to a 50bp ease in September. This anticipated move by the Fed is already influencing mortgage rates, which have already experienced a notable decline.

Understanding the Lock-in Effect

One of the key factors influencing prepayments in the current environment is the lock-in effect, where borrowers are deterred from selling their current home due to the large difference between their current mortgage rate and prevailing market rates (which they would incur when purchasing their next home). As rates decrease, the gap narrows, reducing the lock-in effect and freeing more borrowers to sell and move.

As Chart 1 illustrates, a significant share of borrowers continues to hold mortgages between 2 and 3 percent. These borrowers clearly still have no incentive to refinance. But historical data suggests that the sizeable lock-in effect, which is currently depressing turnover, diminishes as the magnitude of their out-of-the-moneyness comes down. In other words, even a 100-basis point reduction can significantly increase housing turnover, as borrowers who were previously 300 basis points out of the money move to 200 basis points, making selling their old home and buying a new one, despite the higher interest rate, more palatable.

CHART 1: Distribution of Note Rates for 30-Year Conventional Mortgages: July 2024

Current Market Dynamics

Recent data from Mortgage News Daily indicates that mortgage rates have dropped over the past four weeks from around 6.8% to nearly 6.4%. This decrease is expected to continue, potentially bringing rates below 6% by the end of the year. This will likely have a profound impact on mortgage prepayments, particularly in the Agency MBS market.

Most outstanding mortgages, particularly those in Fannie and Freddie securities, currently have low prepayment speeds, with many loans sitting at 2% to 3% coupons. While a drop in mortgage rates to 6% (or lower) will still leave most of these mortgages out of the money for traditional rate-and-term refinances, it may bring a growing number of them into play for cash-out refinances, given significant home price appreciation and equity buildup over last 4 years. It will also loosen the grip of the lock-in effect for a growing number of homeowners currently paying below-market interest rates.

Implications for Prepayment Speeds

Factoring in the potential increase in turnover and cash-out refis, the impact of rate cuts on prepayment speeds could be substantial. For instance, with a 100-bp drop in rates, loans that are deeply out of the money could see their prepayment speeds increase by 1 to 2 CPR based on the turnover effect alone. Loans that are just at the money or slightly out of the money will see a more pronounced effect, with prepayment speeds potentially doubling. Chart 2, below, illustrates both the huge volume of loans deep out of the money to refinance as well as the small (but significant) uptick in CPR that a 100-bp shift in interest rates can have on CPR even for loans as much as 300 bps out of the money.

CHART 2: CPR by Refinance Incentive (dotted line reflects UPB of each bucket)

Historical data suggests that if mortgage rates move to 6.4%, the volume of loans moving into the money to refinance could increase up to eightfold — from $39 billion to $247 billion (see chart 3, below.) This surge in refinance activity will significantly influence prepays — impacting both turnover and refi volumes.

CHART 3: Volume and CPR by Coupon (dotted line reflects UPB of each bucket)

The Broader Housing Market

Beyond prepayments, the broader housing market may also feel the effects of rate cuts, but perhaps in a nuanced way. A reduction in rates generally improves affordability, potentially sustaining or even increasing home prices despite the increased supply from unlocked homes. However, this dynamic is complex. While lower rates make homes more affordable, the release of previously locked-in homes could counterintuitively depress home prices due to increased supply. With housing affordability at multi-decade lows, an uptick in housing supply could swamp any effect of somewhat lower rates.

While a modest rate cut may primarily boost turnover, a more significant cut could trigger a wave of refinancing. Additionally, cash-out refinances may become more attractive, offering a cheaper alternative to HELOCs and other more expensive options.

Conclusion

The forthcoming Fed interest rate cuts are poised to have a significant impact on mortgage prepayments. As rates decline, the lock-in effect will ease, encouraging more refinancing and increasing prepayment speeds. The broader housing market will also feel the effects, with potential implications for home prices and overall market dynamics. Monitoring these trends closely will be crucial for market participants, particularly those in the agency MBS market, as they navigate the changing landscape.

Contact us to staying informed and prepared and learn more about how RiskSpan can help you make strategic decisions that align with evolving market conditions.

Leveraging Pool-Specific Performance and Recapture Analysis: A Game Changer for MSR Investors

Successfully forecasting MSR cash flows demands a level of precision and granularity in data analysis that few other asset classes require. This is especially true for investors seeking to estimate how much prepayment runoff they can reasonably expect to recapture, which is key to the performance of the asset. And often investors need to measure that performance by the specific pools of MSRs they purchase — as each pool may have its own unique recapture arrangements.

RiskSpan’s Edge Platform has incorporated a robust framework for managing MSR investment performance by enabling investors to track pool-specific performance and recapture analyses, thus obtaining a more nuanced understanding of their portfolios. In this post, we delve into some of the specific challenges MSRs pose, the benefits of transaction-specific segmentation, and the unique capabilities of RiskSpan’s Edge Platform.

Understanding Pool-Specific Performance

Owning MSRs requires investors to track the performance of various loan pools over time. For example, an investor may purchase an MSR pool and rely on a sub-servicer to service the loans as well as make efforts to recapture borrowers that are looking to refinance. It is important for the investor to understand and track the returns on that pool which may be largely driven by recapture efficiency.  

While performance needs to be monitored on a pool-level, the modeling of the underlying loans is dependent on the distinct characteristics of the loans within a pool and will be more accurate if the models are run at the loan-level (or at granular rep lines determined by smart rep line logic).  The ability to capture and analyze these pool-specific cash flows based on granular loan-level modeling is crucial for several reasons:

  1. Valuation Accuracy: Each loan can be valued more accurately by considering its unique attributes, such as the original loan terms, interest rates, and borrower profiles (e.g., FICO, LTV); at the same time, pools can be valued based on pool-specific assumptions such as recapture rates and prepayment penalties.
  2. Risk Management: Understanding the performance of individual pools helps in identifying which pools are more prone to prepayments or defaults, enabling more focused efforts on recapture and other risk management activities.
  3. Performance Tracking: Investors can track historical returns, CPRs, CDRs, Recapture and other historical performance metrics for each pool, facilitating more informed decision-making.

Supporting this functionality is RiskSpan’s ability to share and integrate data on Snowflake’s data cloud. RiskSpan’s Snowflake integration enhances the data management and analytics capabilities available to clients. Investors can easily share transaction-specific data through Snowflake, which is then seamlessly integrated into the Edge platform. The platform can then handle the large datasets (tens of millions of loans in some instances), providing real-time analytics and insights.

Recapture Analysis: Enhancing Portfolio Performance

Recapture analysis is a critical component for MSR portfolio risk management. When borrowers refinance or otherwise pay off their loans, the servicer’s cash flows usually vanish entirely. However, if, in the case of refinance, the investor retains the rights to service the loan replacing the refinanced loan, then the new loan can be considered as a recapture. RiskSpan’s Edge platform excels in tracking these recaptures, offering several advantages:

  1. Detailed Tracking: The platform allows for the separation and detailed tracking of original loans and their recaptures, maintaining the distinction between the two. Recaptures should have better performance (i.e., lower CPRs) than original loans.
  2. Performance Comparison: By comparing the performance of original loans and recaptures, investors can gauge the effectiveness of their recapture strategies.
  3. Granular Assumptions: Edge supports highly granular recapture rate assumptions used for projecting cash flows, which can be tailored to specific pools or deals, enhancing the precision of valuation.

A Case Study: Supporting a Large Mortage REIT’s MSR Portfolio Management Regime

A practical example of these capabilities involves a mortgage REIT, which relies on RiskSpan’s platform to manage a large MSR portfolio. Specifically, the Edge platform has enabled the REIT investor to accomplish the following:

  • Capture Transaction-Specific Data: the investor can track and analyze data at the transaction level, maintaining detailed records of each pool’s performance and its recaptures. This allows, for example, investors to review performance with sub-servicers and evaluate whether certain changes can be made to enhance performance either on the existing pool or on future pools.
  • Custom Assumption Setting: The platform allows for custom segmentation and assumption setting for valuation purposes, such as different recapture rates based on prepayment projections or loan age. This provides an ability to more accurately measure future projected cash flows and factor that into valuation of owned MSRs as well as potential purchases.

RiskSpan’s Edge platform offers MSR investors a robust toolset for managing their portfolios with precision not available anywhere else. By enabling pool-specific performance and detailed recapture analysis, Edge helps investors optimize their strategies and enhance portfolio performance. The ability to capture and analyze nuanced data points sets RiskSpan apart, making it a valuable ally in the complex landscape of MSR investments.

MSR investors, contact us to discover how tailored analytics and granular data management can transform your investment strategy and give you a competitive edge.

RiskSpan Launches MBS Loan Level Historical Data on Snowflake Marketplace

ARLINGTON, Va., June 18, 2024 – RiskSpan, a leading provider of data analytics and risk management solutions for the mortgage industry, announced today that it has launched MBS Loan Level Historical Data on Snowflake Marketplace. RiskSpan’s MBS Loan Level Historical Data on Snowflake Marketplace enables joint customers to access RiskSpan’s normalized and enriched loan-level data for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae mortgage-backed securities.

“We are thrilled to join the Snowflake Marketplace and offer our loan-level MBS data to a wider audience of Snowflake users,” said Janet Jozwik, Senior Managing Director at RiskSpan. “This is a first step in what we believe will ultimately become a cloud-based analytical hub for MBS investors everywhere.”

RiskSpan and Snowflake, the AI Data Cloud company, are working together to help joint customers inform business decisions and drive innovations by enabling them to query the data using SQL, join it with other data sources, and scale up or down as needed. RiskSpan also provides sample code and calculations to help users get started with common metrics such as CPR, aging curves, and S-curves.

“RiskSpan’s launch of a unique blend of enriched data onto Snowflake Marketplace represents a major opportunity for Snowflake customers to unlock new value through data on their business journey,” said Kieran Kennedy, Head of Marketplace at Snowflake. “We welcome RiskSpan to the ecosystem and look forward to exploring how we can support our customers as they look to leverage the breadth of the Snowflake platform more effectively.”

Joint customers can now leverage Loan-Level MBS Data on Snowflake Marketplace, allowing them to access RiskSpan data enhancements, including servicer normalization, refinements, mark-to-market LTV calculations, current coupon. These and other enhancements make it easier and faster for users to perform analysis and modeling.

Snowflake Marketplace is powered by Snowflake’s ground-breaking cross-cloud technology, Snowgrid, allowing companies direct access to raw data products and the ability to leverage data, data services, and applications quickly, securely, and cost-effectively. Snowflake Marketplace simplifies discovery, access, and the commercialization of data products, enabling companies to unlock entirely new revenue streams and extended insights across the AI Data Cloud. To learn more about Snowflake Marketplace and how to find, try and buy the data, data services, and applications needed for innovative business solutions, click here.

About RiskSpan, Inc. 

RiskSpan delivers a single analytics solution for structured finance and private credit investors of any size to confidently make faster, more precise trading and portfolio risk decisions and meet reporting requirements with fewer resources, and less time spent managing multiple vendors and internal solutions. Learn more at www.riskspan.com.

Loans & MSRs: Managing model assumptions and tuners the easy way

One of the things that makes modeling loan and MSR cash flows hard is appropriately applying assumptions to individual loans. Creating appropriate assumptions for each loan or MSR segment is crucial to estimating realistic performance scenarios, stress testing, hedging, and valuation. However, manually creating and maintaining such assumptions can be time-consuming, error-prone, and inconsistent across different segments and portfolios.

Fortunately, hidden among some of the Edge Platform’s better-known features is a powerful and flexible way of running loan-level analytics on a portfolio using the Platform’s segment builder and loan model assumptions features.

These sometimes-overlooked features allow users to create and apply granular and customized modeling assumptions to a particular loan portfolio, based on its various, unique loan characteristics. Assumptions can be saved and reused for future analysis on different loans tapes.  This feature allows clients to effectively build and manage a complex system of models adjustment and tuners for granular sub-segments.

Applying the segment builder and loan model assumptions features, loan investors can:

    • Decouple how they run and aggregate results from how they assign modeling assumptions, and seamlessly assign different assumptions to various segments of the portfolio, based on user-defined criteria and preferences. For example, investors can assign different prepayment, default, and severity assumptions to loans based on their state, LTV, UPB, occupancy, purpose, delinquency status, loan type, collateral features, or virtually any other loan characteristic.

 

    • Choose from a variety of models and inputs, including RiskSpan models and vector inputs for things like CPR and CDR. Investors can define their own vector inputs as an aging curves by loan age or based on the forecast month, and apply them to different segments of the portfolio. For example, they can define their own CDR and CPR curves for consumer or C&I loans, based on the age of the loans.

    • Set up and save modeling assumptions one time, and then reference them over and over again whenever new loan tapes are uploaded. This saves time and effort and ensures consistency and accuracy in the analysis.

This hidden feature enables investors to customize their analysis and projections for different asset classes and scenarios, and to leverage the Edge Platform’s embedded cash flow, prepayment and credit models without compromising the granularity and accuracy of the results. Users can create and save multiple sets of loan model assumptions that include either static inputs, aging curves, or RiskSpan models, and apply them to any loan tape they upload and run in the forecasting UI.

Contact us and request a free demo or trial to learn more about how to use these and other exciting hidden (and non-hidden) features and how they can enhance your loan analytics.

CONTACT US

How an MSR Analytical Solution Can Boost Your Mortgage Banking Business

And why it’s probably less expensive than you think

Mortgage servicing rights (MSRs) are complex and volatile assets that require careful management and analysis. Inherent in MSR risk management is the need to monitor portfolio performance, assess risks and opportunities, evaluate and implement risk-reducing strategies such as recapture and interest rate hedging, and effectively communicate all this to investors and regulators. Handling all this has traditionally required an enormous budget for data, software, and consultants. Many mortgage banks are left with either using outdated and inflexible internal systems or outsourcing their analytics to third parties that lack full transparency and bill clients for every request. 

Not anymore.

The answer is a cloud-native MSR analytical solution that includes slice-and-dice-able Agency loan performance data as well as the models necessary to produce valuations, risk analytics and cash flows across both MSRs and associated derivative hedges, where applicable.

By integrating data, models, and reports, this combined solution enables mortgage banks to:

  • Generate internal metrics to compare with those received from third party brokers and consultants
  • Measure the fair value and cash flows of their MSRs under different scenarios and assumptions including a variety of recapture assumptions
  • Analyze the sensitivity of their MSRs (and associated hedges) to changes in interest rates, prepayment speeds, defaults, home prices and other factors
  • Compare their portfolio’s performance and characteristics with the market and industry peers
  • Generate customized reports and dashboards to share with investors, auditors, and regulators

More specifically, RiskSpan’s comprehensive data and analytics solution enables you to do the following:

1. Check assumptions used by outside analysts to run credit and prepayment analytics

Even in cases where the analytics are provided by a third party, mortgage banks frequently benefit from having their own analytical solution. Few things are more frustrating than analytics generated by a black box with no/limited visibility into assumptions or methodology. RiskSpan’s MSR tool provides mortgage banks with an affordable means of checking the assumptions and methodologies used by outside analysts to run credit and prepayment analytics on their portfolio.

Different analysts use different assumptions and models to run credit and prepayment analytics, often leading to inconsistent results that are difficult to explain. Some analysts use historical data while others rely on forward-looking projections. Some analysts simple models while others turn to complex one. Some analysts are content with industry averages while others dig into portfolio-specific data.

Having access to a fully transparent MSR analytical solution of their own allows mortgage banks to check the assumptions and models used by outside analysts for reasonableness and consistency. In addition to helping with results validation and identification of discrepancies or errors, it also facilitates communication of the rationale and logic behind assumptions and models to investors and regulators.  Lastly, the ability for a mortgage bank to internally generate MSR valuations and cash flows allows for a greater understanding of the economic value (vs. accounting value) of the asset they hold.

2. Understand how your portfolio’s prepayment performance stacks up against the market

Prepayment risk is one of the main drivers of MSR value and volatility. Mortgage banks need to know how their portfolio’s prepayment performance compares with the market and their peers. Knowing this helps mortgage banks field questions from investors, who may be concerned about the impact of prepayments on profitability and liquidity. It also helps identify areas of improvement and opportunity for the portfolio.

RiskSpan’s MSR analytical solution helps track and benchmark portfolio prepayment performance using various metrics, including CPR and SMM. It also helps analysts understand the drivers and trends of prepayments, such as interest rates, loan age, loan type, credit score, and geographic distribution. RiskSpan’s MSR analytical solution combined with its historical performance data provides a deeper understanding of how a portfolio’s prepayment performance stacks up against the market and what factors affect it.

And it’s less expensive than you might think

You may think that deploying an MSR analytical solution is too costly and complex, as it requires a lot of data, software, and expertise. However, this is not necessarily true.

Bundling RiskSpan’s MSR analytical solution with RiskSpan’s Agency historical performance tool actually winds up saving clients money by helping them optimize their portfolios and avoid costly mistakes. The solution:

  • Reduces the need for external data, software, and consultants because all the information and tools needed are in one platform
  • Maximizes portfolio performance and profitability by helping to identify and capture opportunities and mitigate risks, including through recapture analysis and active hedging
  • Enhances reputation and credibility by improving transparency to investors and regulators

RiskSpan’s solution is affordable and easy to use, with flexible pricing and deployment options, as well as user-friendly features and support, including intuitive interfaces, interactive dashboards, and comprehensive training and guidance. Its cloud-native, usage-based pricing structure means users pay only for the compute they need (in addition to a nominal licensing fee).

Contact us to learn more about how RiskSpan’s Edge Platform can help you understand how your MSR portfolio’s performance stacks up against the market, check assumptions used by outside analysts to run credit and prepayment analytics, and, most important, save money and time.

CONTACT US

Company

Products

Security & Compliance

Amazon Web Services
Microsoft

Linkedin

SOC2 Type II Certified

Get Started
Log in

Linkedin   

risktech2024