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Articles Tagged with: Private Credit Investors

Humans in the Loop: Ensuring Trustworthy AI in Private ABF Deal Modeling

As generative AI becomes a powerful tool in Private asset-backed finance (ABF), the need for precision and transparency is more critical than ever. At RiskSpan, we’re applying Large Language Models (LLMs) to automate and accelerate private ABF deal modeling and surveillance. But speed is only half the battle—accuracy is non-negotiable.

That’s where Human-in-the-Loop (HITL) validation plays a vital role. While the RiskSpan platform incorporates sophisticated AI guardrails, we believe the right blend of automation and expert oversight ensures results that are not just fast—but reliable, auditable, and production-ready.

The AI-Powered Workflow: What’s Automated

Our private ABF modeling and surveillance system uses LLMs to handle several critical tasks:

  • Data Extraction: Parsing offering memos, indentures, and loan tapes to extract structural and financial data.
  • Deal Code Generation: Producing executable waterfall models based on extracted rules.
  • Database Ingestion: Uploading validated deal terms and triggers into the RiskSpan system of record.
  • Surveillance Automation: Running periodic deal performance analyses and compliance checks.

But What About Hallucinations?

Generative models are powerful but imperfect. Without the right controls, they can fabricate securitization tranches or fees that are not present in the deal documents. They can also misinterpret waterfall rules or omit critical override conditions or generate semantically incorrect code for cashflow models. To address these challenges, RiskSpan employs a multi-layered safeguard framework, combining asset class based extraction; LLM-as-Judge; Rule-Based Guardrails and Inline Human Review

Humans in the Loop: Three Layers of Oversight

We’ve embedded human validation at three key points in the deal lifecycle:

  1. Pre-Modeling Validation: before LLM-generated outputs are finalized, RiskSpan analysts review extracted terms and model prompts—correcting anything misaligned with the source documents.
  2. Inline Oversight: during waterfall code generation, humans validate AI-generated logic in context, ensuring correct treatment of subordination, triggers, caps/floors and other.
  3. Post-Deployment Monitoring Surveillance: outputs are reviewed both by the RiskSpan team and client-side structuring or credit teams. Feedback is looped back into model tuning and prompt optimization.

Looking Ahead: RAG and Continuous Improvement

We’re actively exploring Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) to reduce hallucinations even further. By grounding AI responses in deal-specific material such as offering documents, trustee reports, and internal risk memos—we aim to: 1) eliminate off-topic responses. 2) increase trust in model-derived outputs and 3) enable deeper customization per issuer or asset class.

The Takeaway

AI is transforming how private ABF deals are modeled and monitored—but it must be grounded and guided by human expertise and built for institutional rigor. At RiskSpan, we’re not just accelerating workflows—we’re raising the bar for accuracy and trust in AI-assisted private structures. Human-in-the-loop is not a fallback—it’s a strategic pillar. Want to see how our AI platform works in action? Reach out to schedule a demo or contact your RiskSpan representative to learn more.


Private Credit Market Pulse: What LPs Want from Their Data and How to Deliver It

Limited Partners (LPs) continue to demand better data, faster, and with full transparency. At this week’s Private Credit Tech Summit in New York, I moderated a panel of industry leaders for a discussion on where LP expectations are heading and the challenges managers face trying to meet them.

My fellow panelists included:

·      Charlie Tafoya, Co-Founder and CEO of Chronograph

·      Marios Tsiptis, Senior Portfolio Manager

·      Arnab Mazumdar, Partner at Pantheon

We explored the evolving expectations of LPs, the operational hurdles General Partners (GPs) face, and the technology shaping the next frontier of data transparency in private credit.

What follows is where we landed.

LP Expectations Are Outpacing the Status Quo

Quarterly performance reports and aggregate numbers used to be enough. But Marios Tsiptis explained that today’s LPs (particularly insurance companies) want detailed, timely insight into exactly what they own and what risks they’re carrying.

From Pantheon’s fund-of-funds vantage point, Arnab Mazumdar laid out three foundational data pillars:

1.     Performance metrics

2.     Operating and credit-level data

3.     Consistency across managers

Lagging information and inconsistencies across investment structures, especially between SMAs and feeder funds, create significant friction. Structure matters, and data must be complete, accurate, and delivered on LP terms.

The Operational Reality: Bridging Ambition and Execution

Charlie Tafoya, who works closely with GPs via Chronograph, provided a sobering view of the day-to-day realities. Many managers are eager to modernize, but they’re grappling with:

·      Delays in data delivery

·      Data quality and validation issues

·      Fragmented internal processes

There’s just no getting around the fact that investment teams simply must be embedded in the data flow. Too often, front-office insights are siloed from the operations teams responsible for reporting. “The investment team is the source of truth,” Charlie noted, making their engagement essential to any successful data transformation.

Meanwhile, Arnab called for a convergence of internal monitoring and external reporting. Aligning what GPs see internally with what they share externally could yield benefits across the board—but cultural and technological hurdles remain.

Technology as Enabler, Not Panacea

Tools that support data interoperability, real-time reporting, and workflow automation are rapidly maturing. But challenges persist around integration with legacy systems and data standardization.

From the LP side, Marios painted a picture of an ideal future. Intuitive dashboards, seamless access across portfolios, and fully integrated delivery pipelines all featured prominently in this future. But the road leading there is still under construction.

According to Arnab, the next few years will hinge on industry standardization and early adopters gaining a competitive edge, while laggards risk being left behind.

Transparency builds trust—but it requires real operational change.

More than just a tech problem, this requires a cultural shift. GPs and LPs need to work as true partners in designing data ecosystems that are not only robust and scalable, but also reflect the growing sophistication of the private credit space.

As the private markets evolve, so too must the infrastructure that supports them. Those who succeed in this transition will not only meet the expectations of today’s LPs, but also shape tomorrow’s.


ABA Landing Page — Private Credit: Asset-Backed Finance Analytics

Private Credit:
Asset-Backed Finance Analytics

AI-Powered Surveillance, Data Collection & Cashflow Modeling for Scalable Portfolio Management

Get a free trial or demo

THE PROBLEM: Private credit ABF portfolios are diverse and complex, encompassing various collateral types, structural features, and data formats. Traditional portfolio and risk management workflows remain fragmented and manual, creating inefficiencies that constrain growth.

RiskSpan's ABF Private Credit Solution

Introducing the only end-to-end solution for private credit deal modeling, portfolio surveillance, and risk management, enabling investors to optimize decision-making and scalability.

AI-Driven Data Extraction & Structuring

Turn Unstructured Deal Data into Actionable Intelligence

  • Automated document processing extracts key terms, conditions, and structural details from loan and deal documents.
  • AI-powered data validation minimizes human error and ensures accuracy in portfolio analytics.
  • Standardized data models integrate with Snowflake for seamless analysis.
  • Extracted deal structures, waterfalls, triggers, and covenants drive accurate cashflow modeling, portfolio surveillance, and reporting.

Advanced Cash Flow Modeling for Private Credit Portfolios

Scalable, Customizable AI-Powered Cash Flow Analytics

  • AI-generated open-source cash flow modeling provides a customizable starting point for deal structuring.
  • Custom security ID integration ensures seamless tracking in RiskSpan’s Edge Platform.
  • Scenario-based forecasting & pricing analytics deliver insights tailored to private credit portfolios.
  • Automated API access streamlines portfolio monitoring and cashflow analysis.

Private Credit Portfolio Risk & Surveillance

Comprehensive Risk Management & Real-Time Monitoring

  • Run daily pricing & risk analytics across public and private assets in a single framework.
  • Loan-level risk assessments enhance portfolio granularity and accuracy.
  • Automate covenant tracking & remittance report ingestion to monitor deal performance and triggers in real-time.
  • Custom stress testing & scenario analysis tailored to private credit portfolios.

Resi Loan Investor? We Have You Covered There, Too!

Riskspan

  • Outsource the Heavy Lifting of Consolidating and Mapping Servicer Data: Powered by Smart Mapping and Optimized QC rules, RiskSpan automates data ingestion across multiple servicers and data sources:
  • Dynamic Query/Filter Loan Data and Historical Performance Metrics:  Analyze loan data using query/filter and custom composition reports; Generate customized data visualization reports
  • Loan Bid Analysis Trading Quality Risk Models, Loan-Level Valuations: RiskSpan has purpose-built tools and models to support active buyers/sellers of whole loans  
     
  • Portfolio Risk Management Powerful Scalability for Daily Analytics.

Why Private Credit Investors Choose RiskSpan

  • Eliminate manual surveillance bottlenecks that delay critical performance insights.

  • Improve loan acquisition & investor reporting workflows with AI-powered automation.

  • Proven success supporting asset managers, insurance firms, and private credit funds.

  • Seamless integration with existing risk management and portfolio reporting frameworks.

Unlock the Power of AI for Private Credit Investing

📩 Contact us today to schedule a demo and streamline your private credit analytics.
🔗 Request a Demo

Product Summary

Introductory Presentation (coming soon)

Model Documentation (coming soon)

Built for Speed, Scale and Affordability

Cloud-Native for 15 Years

Get a Free Trial or Demo

Resources

view all

Private Credit Investors

reuse_tax_query=1 tag=”exclude” operator=”NOT IN”]


Using LLMs as judges for validating deal cash flow models: A new frontier in securitization modeling

As securitization models become increasingly complex and differentiated, validation becomes a critical challenge. We’ve experimented with an innovative approach that leverages large language models (LLMs) as impartial judges to validate models implemented across different platforms.

The Dual-Implementation Challenge

In cash flow modeling, we often maintain parallel implementations—typically in Python for flexibility and Excel for transparency. How do we ensure both versions produce consistent results?

Enter the “LLM as Judge” approach!

A Real-World Case Study: Residential Transition Loan Funding

Consider a portfolio of residential transition loans with a funding structure including:

  • 100 loans averaging $275,000 each
  • 12-month average terms at 8.75%
  • A 75% advance rate
  • 2% loss reserve build-up
  • Performance triggers based on delinquency rates

We implemented this structure in both Python and Excel, then submitted both models to an LLM for validation.

The LLM Validation Process

The LLM first analyzed the conceptual alignment between models, confirming both followed the same fundamental approach to cash flow projection, default assumptions, reserve mechanics, and triggers.

Next came a rigorous numerical comparison. The LLM detected a $100,000 investor distribution discrepancy in Month 2:

  • Python model: $1,790,702
  • Excel model: $1,690,702

Through logical analysis, the LLM determined this likely stemmed from differently evaluated trigger conditions. This kind of subtle implementation difference could easily go unnoticed in manual validation, potentially leading to significant valuation discrepancies over time.

Beyond Discrepancy Detection

The true power of this approach extends beyond finding differences. The LLM also provided:

  1. Stress testing recommendations tailored to our specific product, including scenarios for rapid defaults, extension waves, and interest rate shocks
  2. Model risk management insights highlighting documentation needs and suggesting a formal reconciliation process
  3. Code quality assessment noting strengths and weaknesses in both implementations

Why This Matters

For securitization professionals, this approach offers several advantages:

  • Efficiency: Automation of tedious line-by-line comparisons
  • Comprehensiveness: Identification of conceptual differences, not just numerical ones
  • Regulatory compliance: Better documentation for model risk management requirements
  • Objectivity: Unbiased third-party perspective

Contact us to discuss.


RiskSpan Announces the Appointment of Howard Kaplan and Susan Mills to Advisory Board

Arlington, VA – April 10, 2025 – RiskSpan, a leading provider of innovative analytics and risk management and data analytics for loans, securities and private credit,is pleased to announce the addition of two distinguished industry veterans, Howard Kaplan and Susan Mills, to its Advisory Board. Their appointments further strengthen RiskSpan’s ability to provide forward-thinking insights and trusted solutions across the structured finance and expanding private credit landscape.

Howard Kaplan brings over 35 years of global financial services leadership experience, including 28 years as a partner at Deloitte & Touche, where he served for over a decade as the Managing Partner of its Securitization Practice and, as the global lead client partner, advised some of the world’s most complex financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs and MasterCard. He is widely recognized for his ability to build client trust and deliver exceptional results across a wide range of professional services.

Kaplan currently serves on the Advisory Board for Union Home Mortgage and recently served as Board Chair for the Structured Finance Association (SFA), where he also chaired the SFA Executive, Nominating and Compensation Committees, and was honored with a Lifetime Achievement Award for his distinguished service and contributions to the structured finance industry.

“Howard’s breadth of structured finance expertise, combined with his knowledge of governance, risk, and regulatory issues, is unparalleled,” said Bernadette Kogler, RiskSpan CEO. “His leadership in both professional services and our industry’s leading trade association will offer RiskSpan’s clients strategic perspective at a time when the financial landscape is evolving rapidly.”

Susan Mills brings over three decades of leadership in the residential mortgage finance sector. She currently serves as Managing Director and Head of RMBS Capital Markets and Originations at Academy Securities, where she has led the firm’s significant expansion as an underwriter in new issue RMBS transactions. Mills also sits on the Board of Directors at Chimera Investment Corporation, contributing to its Nominating and Governance and Risk Committees.

Before joining Academy, Mills had a long and accomplished career at Citigroup, where she led several residential mortgage businesses, including warehouse lending, non-agency securitization and contract finance, as well as sourcing institutional capital for residential opportunities. She has earned a reputation for innovation, execution, and ethical leadership, testifying before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission and playing a key role in post-crisis rebuilding efforts in mortgage finance. 

“Susan’s extensive experience in mortgage-backed securities and her track record of strategic leadership at some of the industry’s most important institutions will bring invaluable insights to RiskSpan,” noted Kogler.

RiskSpan’s Advisory Board provides strategic guidance as the company continues to expand its platform to serve the needs of private credit investors and risk managers across asset-backed sectors.


About RiskSpan RiskSpan delivers a single analytics solution for structured finance and private credit investors of any size to confidently make faster, more precise trading and portfolio risk decisions and meet reporting requirements with fewer resources, and less time spent managing multiple vendors and internal solutions. 


Insurance Solutions

Insurance Solutions

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What's holding your portfolio back?

Managing diverse portfolios across asset types and jurisdictions is hard. Data is scattered. Surveillance is manual. Risk and investment decisions are disconnected.

RiskSpan changes that.

Our end-to-end platform gives insurers the tools to streamline operations, stay compliant, and optimize returns across public and private credit.

What we solve

Fragmented Data. Unified.

The Problem: Inconsistent, siloed data slows decisions and creates risk.
Our Fix: RiskSpan’s platform ingests, normalizes, and connects all your data—from loans and bonds to private credit and structured products.

  • Clean data. Cloud-native. Instantly available.

  • Snowflake and Databricks-ready.


Compliance Without the Headache

The Problem: Managing RBC, CECL, and global regulatory requirements is complex and time-consuming.
Our Fix: Multi-framework regulatory and capital modeling, audit-ready CECL tools, and scenario-based stress testing.

  • SOC 1 and SOC 2 certified

  • Full coverage of loans and securities

Surveillance that Saves Time

The Problem: Manual Excel processes delay insight and cost money.
Our Fix: Automated surveillance, real-time pricing, and stress testing—all in one platform.

  • Save 3 weeks/month and $1.5MM/year

  • Real-time dashboards and alerts


Smarter Scenarios Across All Assets

The Problem: No way to consistently assess risk across asset classes.
Our Fix: Scenario and risk analytics—tailored to your portfolio and powered by macro data from S&P and beyond.

  • VaR, tail risk, correlation, credit risk

  • Loan-level granularity. Climate and geopolitical risk ready.


One Connected Investment + Risk Workflow

The Problem: Investment and risk teams use different tools and speak different languages.
Our Fix: One platform for portfolio surveillance, trade support, ALM, and pricing.

  • Pre-trade credit memos through post-trade surveillance

  • API, dashboard, and reporting access for every team

“We went from spreadsheet chaos to a real-time view of our private deals. Closed more deals, with better risk controls.”
Head of Investment Risk
55B AUM Life Insurer

What's under the hood

  • AI-Powered Document Parsing & Deal Modeling

  • End-to-End CECL Processing

  • Regulatory Reporting Engine

  • Cross-Asset Stress Testing

  • SOC 2 Secure + Cloud Native

  • Easy API + Web UI Access

AI-Driven Data Extraction & Structuring

Turn Unstructured Deal Data into Actionable Intelligence

  • Automated document processing extracts key terms, conditions, and structural details from loan and deal documents.
  • AI-powered data validation minimizes human error and ensures accuracy in portfolio analytics.
  • Standardized data models integrate with Snowflake for seamless analysis.
  • Extracted deal structures, waterfalls, triggers, and covenants drive accurate cashflow modeling, portfolio surveillance, and reporting.

Advanced Cash Flow Modeling for Private ABF Portfolios

Scalable, Customizable AI-Powered Cash Flow Analytics

  • AI-generated open-source cash flow modeling provides a customizable starting point for deal structuring.
  • Custom security ID integration ensures seamless tracking in RiskSpan’s Edge Platform.
  • Scenario-based forecasting & pricing analytics deliver insights tailored to private credit portfolios.
  • Automated API access streamlines portfolio monitoring and cashflow analysis.

Private ABF Portfolio Risk & Surveillance

Comprehensive Risk Management & Real-Time Monitoring

  • Run daily pricing & risk analytics across public and private assets in a single framework.
  • Loan-level risk assessments enhance portfolio granularity and accuracy.
  • Automate covenant tracking & remittance report ingestion to monitor deal performance and triggers in real-time.
  • Custom stress testing & scenario analysis tailored to private credit portfolios.

Why Insurers Choose RiskSpan for Private ABF Analytics

  • Eliminate manual surveillance bottlenecks that delay critical performance insights.

  • Improve loan acquisition & investor reporting workflows with AI-powered automation.

  • Proven success supporting asset managers, insurance firms, and private credit funds.

  • Seamless integration with existing risk management and portfolio reporting frameworks.

Unlock the Power of AI for Private Credit Investing

📩 Contact us today to schedule a demo and streamline your private credit analytics.
🔗 Request a Demo

Product Summary

Introductory Presentation (coming soon)

Model Documentation (coming soon)

Built for Speed, Scale and Affordability

Cloud-Native for 15 Years

Get a Free Trial or Demo

Resources

view all

Private Credit Investors

reuse_tax_query=1 tag=”exclude” operator=”NOT IN”]


Private Credit: Asset-Backed Finance Analytics

Private Credit:
Asset-Backed Finance Analytics

AI-Powered Surveillance, Data Collection & Cashflow Modeling for Scalable Portfolio Management

Get a free trial or demo

THE PROBLEM: Private credit ABF portfolios are diverse and complex, encompassing various collateral types, structural features, and data formats. Traditional portfolio and risk management workflows remain fragmented and manual, creating inefficiencies that constrain growth.

RiskSpan's ABF Private Credit Solution

Introducing the only end-to-end solution for private credit deal modeling, portfolio surveillance, and risk management, enabling investors to optimize decision-making and scalability.

AI-Driven Data Extraction & Structuring

Turn Unstructured Deal Data into Actionable Intelligence

  • Automated document processing extracts key terms, conditions, and structural details from loan and deal documents.
  • AI-powered data validation minimizes human error and ensures accuracy in portfolio analytics.
  • Standardized data models integrate with Snowflake for seamless analysis.
  • Extracted deal structures, waterfalls, triggers, and covenants drive accurate cashflow modeling, portfolio surveillance, and reporting.

Advanced Cash Flow Modeling for Private Credit Portfolios

Scalable, Customizable AI-Powered Cash Flow Analytics

  • AI-generated open-source cash flow modeling provides a customizable starting point for deal structuring.
  • Custom security ID integration ensures seamless tracking in RiskSpan’s Edge Platform.
  • Scenario-based forecasting & pricing analytics deliver insights tailored to private credit portfolios.
  • Automated API access streamlines portfolio monitoring and cashflow analysis.

Private Credit Portfolio Risk & Surveillance

Comprehensive Risk Management & Real-Time Monitoring

  • Run daily pricing & risk analytics across public and private assets in a single framework.
  • Loan-level risk assessments enhance portfolio granularity and accuracy.
  • Automate covenant tracking & remittance report ingestion to monitor deal performance and triggers in real-time.
  • Custom stress testing & scenario analysis tailored to private credit portfolios.

Resi Loan Investor? We Have You Covered There, Too!

Riskspan

  • Outsource the Heavy Lifting of Consolidating and Mapping Servicer Data: Powered by Smart Mapping and Optimized QC rules, RiskSpan automates data ingestion across multiple servicers and data sources:
  • Dynamic Query/Filter Loan Data and Historical Performance Metrics:  Analyze loan data using query/filter and custom composition reports; Generate customized data visualization reports
  • Loan Bid Analysis Trading Quality Risk Models, Loan-Level Valuations: RiskSpan has purpose-built tools and models to support active buyers/sellers of whole loans  
     
  • Portfolio Risk Management Powerful Scalability for Daily Analytics.

Why Private Credit Investors Choose RiskSpan

  • Eliminate manual surveillance bottlenecks that delay critical performance insights.

  • Improve loan acquisition & investor reporting workflows with AI-powered automation.

  • Proven success supporting asset managers, insurance firms, and private credit funds.

  • Seamless integration with existing risk management and portfolio reporting frameworks.

Unlock the Power of AI for Private Credit Investing

📩 Contact us today to schedule a demo and streamline your private credit analytics.
🔗 Request a Demo

Product Summary

Introductory Presentation (coming soon)

Model Documentation (coming soon)

Built for Speed, Scale and Affordability

Cloud-Native for 15 Years

Get a Free Trial or Demo

Resources

view all

Private Credit Investors

reuse_tax_query=1 tag=”exclude” operator=”NOT IN”]


The Future of Private Credit: Growth Challenges, and How RiskSpan is Leading the Way

Private credit is having a moment, as they say, now approaching $7 trillion in global assets, and is poised to double in size over the next decade. As traditional banks tighten lending due to regulatory constraints, private credit is stepping in to provide flexible, high-yield investment opportunities for institutional investors. However, this expanding market brings challenges, including illiquidity, bespoke deal structures, and complex risk assessments.

Chartis Research, in collaboration with RiskSpan, explores these evolving dynamics in a recent report, shedding light on the forces shaping private credit’s expansion and the critical role of technology in mitigating risk.

As private credit markets grow, effective risk management is crucial for investors seeking stable returns. Advanced technologies like AI and machine learning are revolutionizing private credit risk assessment, enhancing cash flow modeling, pricing accuracy, and portfolio diversification. RiskSpan leads the industry with innovative solutions, leveraging loan-level data and cloud-based platforms to provide real-time analytics. Whether you’re an asset manager, institutional investor, or lender, understanding the latest private credit trends is essential for success.

Read the full article to explore how private credit is transforming finance and why technology-driven risk management is the key to sustainable growth.

Contact us to learn more about how RiskSpan’s platform can support your private credit analytics.


Loans LP

Loan and Private Credit Investors

Resi | Non-QM | MSR | Consumer | Auto | Commercial

  • Quickly ingest pools, run predictive analytics, and optimize buy/sell strategies.

  • Integrate analytics across front and middle office workflows

  • Leverage historical performance data for better risk management and pricing

  • Connect directly with trading systems

  • Customize and seamlessly integrate into traders’ existing processes

Get a free trial or demo

Product Summary

Introductory Presentation (coming soon)

Model Documentation (coming soon)

Built for Speed, Scale and Affordability

Cloud-Native for 15 Years

Get a Free Trial or Demo

Resources

view all

Private Credit Investors

reuse_tax_query=1 tag=”exclude” operator=”NOT IN”]


Private Credit Primer Series: Insights for Investors

We are delighted to announce the release of RiskSpan’s series of Private Credit Primers aimed at providing investors with essential knowledge about the diverse and growing landscape of the loan types that private credit investors are buying. These primers offer at-a-glance insights into the mechanics, performance expectations, and unique features of various asset classes, enabling investors to make informed decisions in this dynamic market.

The first three primers in the series are available now: They focus on Residential Transition Loans (RTLs), Personal Loans, and HELOCs — loan types that are becoming increasingly popular in the private credit space.

Residential Transition Loans (RTLs) (full primer here)

RTLs are short-term loans designed to help borrowers bridge financial gaps during transitional periods in residential real estate. Often used for construction, bridge, and relocation purposes, RTLs typically have terms ranging from 6 to 36 months and feature higher interest rates than traditional long-term financing. These loans play a crucial role for both homeowners and real estate investors, especially in markets where property values fluctuate or where short-term liquidity is needed.

  • Important Features: RTLs often involve draw functionality, allowing borrowers to access funds incrementally as projects progress. Another key aspect is the use of the “As-Repaired” Value (ARV) to calculate Loan-to-Value (LTV) ratios, based on the projected value of the property after repairs.
  • Performance Considerations: While RTLs have performed well during periods of stable or rising home prices, the primer cautions that these loans are more vulnerable during economic downturns or periods of home price decline​.

Personal Loans (full primer here)

Personal loans can be secured or unsecured and are used for a variety of purposes, including debt consolidation, medical expenses, and large purchases. They are repaid in fixed monthly installments over a predetermined period.

  • Important Features: The primer highlights key modeling considerations for personal loans, such as static default/prepayment assumptions, which rely on historical data to predict future loan performance based on factors like loan age and borrower profiles.
  • Performance Expectations: As of 2024, the delinquency rate for personal loans stands at around 3.38%, with average interest rates hovering around 12.42%, though they can vary widely depending on market conditions and borrower credit quality​.

HELOCs (full primer here)

The complexity of modeling HELOCs stems from their sharing characteristics of both a mortgage and a credit card. Reliable assumptions about borrower behavior both during the draw period (when balances can move in either direction at any time) and during the post-draw, repayment-only period are crucial to forecasting correct cash flows.

  • Important Features: Understanding regional variations and borrower characteristics can provide deeper insights into HELOC performance, helping to refine risk models and lending strategies.
  • Performance Expectations: The delinquency rate for HELOCs can vary based on factors such as economic conditions, borrower credit quality, and market trends. However, historically, the delinquency rate for HELOCs tends to be lower than for unsecured loans or credit cards.

What to Expect from the Series

Each primer in the series will not only break down the mechanics of the loan type but also provide performance insights and modeling considerations. With the ongoing volatility in the financial markets, these primers will explore how various asset classes perform under different economic conditions, such as rising interest rates, declining home prices, or increasing unemployment.

By offering practical, data-driven insights, the Private Credit Primer series will serve as an invaluable resource for private credit investors who are looking to deepen their understanding of these asset classes and navigate potential risks effectively.

Stay tuned for more primers in this series, as we continues to expand RiskSpan’s library of resources for private credit investors!


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