Linkedin    Twitter   Facebook

Get Started
Log In

Linkedin

Category: News

RiskSpan Expands Private Credit Solution to Include Residential Transition Loans

Arlington, VA – July 18, 2024 – RiskSpan, a leading technology provider of innovative risk management and data analytics for securities, loans and private credit, today announced the addition of Residential Transition Loans, to its award-winning Edge Platform. This enhancement enables loan and private credit investors to seamlessly upload, model, and analyze cash flow projections for fix/flip, ground-up construction, bridge and other loans with distinctive RTL features, further solidifying RiskSpan’s commitment to delivering comprehensive and versatile solutions to the private credit market.

The integration of RTLs into the Edge Platform offers investors  an unprecedented level of flexibility and precision in managing and evaluating complex loan portfolios. The new capability permits lenders to model several loan features characteristic of RTLs, including:

  • Draw Schedules on Undisbursed Loan Amounts: Investors can now account for staggered disbursement schedules, allowing for detailed modeling of cash flows based on actual loan drawdown patterns.
  • Extended Maturity Dates and Extension fees: The Platform accommodates assumptions around extension of maturity dates, ensuring investors and lenders can extend terms as necessary and model the impact on cash flows.
  • Interest-Only Contract Terms: The Platform supports loans with interest-only payment structures, providing the ability to model and project cash flows accurately.
  • “Dutch” Loan Features: RiskSpan now supports loans where interest is charged on both disbursed and undisbursed loan amounts, offering a comprehensive view of interest accruals and cash flow projections.

“By adding RTLs to the Platform, we are providing loan and private credit investors with powerful tools to navigate the complexities of these unique loan products,” said Bernadette Kogler, CEO of RiskSpan. “This enhancement aligns with our mission to equip our clients with the most advanced and flexible solutions for managing and analyzing their loan portfolios.”

These new capabilities are designed to meet the evolving needs specifically of loan and private credit investors, offering a seamless integration process and user-friendly interface. This latest addition underscores RiskSpan’s dedication to continuous innovation in this market.

For more information about RiskSpan’s Edge Platform and the new RTL functionality, please visit RiskSpan.com.


About RiskSpan

RiskSpan delivers a single analytics solution for structured finance and private credit investors of any size to confidently make faster, more precise trading and portfolio risk decisions and meet reporting requirements with fewer resources, and less time spent managing multiple vendors and internal solutions.  Learn more at www.riskspan.com.


RiskSpan Launches MBS Loan Level Historical Data on Snowflake Marketplace

ARLINGTON, Va., June 18, 2024 – RiskSpan, a leading provider of data analytics and risk management solutions for the mortgage industry, announced today that it has launched MBS Loan Level Historical Data on Snowflake Marketplace. RiskSpan’s MBS Loan Level Historical Data on Snowflake Marketplace enables joint customers to access RiskSpan’s normalized and enriched loan-level data for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae mortgage-backed securities.

“We are thrilled to join the Snowflake Marketplace and offer our loan-level MBS data to a wider audience of Snowflake users,” said Janet Jozwik, Senior Managing Director at RiskSpan. “This is a first step in what we believe will ultimately become a cloud-based analytical hub for MBS investors everywhere.”

RiskSpan and Snowflake, the AI Data Cloud company, are working together to help joint customers inform business decisions and drive innovations by enabling them to query the data using SQL, join it with other data sources, and scale up or down as needed. RiskSpan also provides sample code and calculations to help users get started with common metrics such as CPR, aging curves, and S-curves.

“RiskSpan’s launch of a unique blend of enriched data onto Snowflake Marketplace represents a major opportunity for Snowflake customers to unlock new value through data on their business journey,” said Kieran Kennedy, Head of Marketplace at Snowflake. “We welcome RiskSpan to the ecosystem and look forward to exploring how we can support our customers as they look to leverage the breadth of the Snowflake platform more effectively.”

Joint customers can now leverage Loan-Level MBS Data on Snowflake Marketplace, allowing them to access RiskSpan data enhancements, including servicer normalization, refinements, mark-to-market LTV calculations, current coupon. These and other enhancements make it easier and faster for users to perform analysis and modeling.

Snowflake Marketplace is powered by Snowflake’s ground-breaking cross-cloud technology, Snowgrid, allowing companies direct access to raw data products and the ability to leverage data, data services, and applications quickly, securely, and cost-effectively. Snowflake Marketplace simplifies discovery, access, and the commercialization of data products, enabling companies to unlock entirely new revenue streams and extended insights across the AI Data Cloud. To learn more about Snowflake Marketplace and how to find, try and buy the data, data services, and applications needed for innovative business solutions, click here.

About RiskSpan, Inc. 

RiskSpan delivers a single analytics solution for structured finance and private credit investors of any size to confidently make faster, more precise trading and portfolio risk decisions and meet reporting requirements with fewer resources, and less time spent managing multiple vendors and internal solutions. Learn more at www.riskspan.com.


RiskSpan to Launch Usage-based Pricing for its Edge Platform at SFVegas 2024 

New innovative pricing model offers lower costs, transparency, and flexibility for analytics users 

RiskSpan, a top provider of cloud-based analytics solutions for loans, MSRs, structured products and private credit, announced today the launch of a usage-based pricing model for its Edge Platform. The new pricing model enables clients flexibility to pay only for the compute they use. It also gives clients access to the full platform, including data, models, and analytics, without having to license individual product modules. 

Usage-based pricing is a trend that reflects the evolving nature of analytics and the increasing demand for more flexible, transparent, and value-driven pricing models. It is especially suited for the dynamic and diverse needs of analytics users, whose data volumes, usage patterns, and analytical complexity requirements often fluctuate with the markets.

RiskSpan was an early adopter of the Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud in 2010. Its new usage-based pricing, powered by the AWS cloud, enables RiskSpan to invoice its clients based on user-configured workloads, which can scale up or down as needed. 

“Usage-based pricing is a game-changer for our clients and the industry,” said Bernadette Kogler, CEO of RiskSpan. “It aligns our pricing with the value we deliver and the outcomes we enable for our clients. It also eliminates the waste and inefficiency of paying for unused, fixed-fee compute capacity, year after year in long-term, set price contracts. Now our clients can optimize their spending while experimenting with all the features our platform has to offer.”

“We are excited RiskSpan chose AWS to launch its new pricing model. Our values are aligned in earning trust through transparent variable pricing that allows our customers to innovate and remain agile.” said Ben Schreiner, Head of Business Innovation, at Amazon Web Services. “By leveraging the latest in AWS technology, including our generative AI services, RiskSpan is accelerating the value they deliver to their customers, and ultimately, the entire financial services industry.”

Usage-based pricing offers several benefits for RiskSpan clients, including: 

  • Lower Costs: Clients pay only for what they need, rather than being locked into an expensive contract that may not suit their current or future situation. 
  • Cost Sharing: Clients can share costs across the enterprise and better manage expense based on usage by individual functions and business units. 
  • Transparency: Clients can monitor their usage and directly link their analytics configuration and usage to their results and goals. They can also better control their spending by tracking their usage and seeing how it affects their bill. 
  • Flexibility: Clients can experiment with different features and options of RiskSpan’s Edge Platform, as they are not restricted by a predefined package or plan. 

For a free demo, visit https://riskspan.com/ubp/.

### 

About RiskSpan, Inc. 

RiskSpan offers cloud-native SaaS analytics for on-demand market risk, credit risk, pricing and trading. With an unparalleled team of data science experts and technologists, RiskSpan is the leader in data as a service and end-to-end solutions for loan-level data management and analytics.

Its mission is to be the most trusted and comprehensive source of data and analytics for loans and structured finance investments. Learn more at www.riskspan.com.


RiskSpan, Dominium Advisors Announce Market Color Dashboard for Mortgage Loan Investors


ARLINGTON, Va., January 24, 2024 – RiskSpan, the leading tech provider of data management and analytics services for loans and structured products, has partnered with tech-enabled asset manager Dominium Advisors to introduce a new whole loan market color dashboard to RiskSpan’s Edge Platform.

This new dashboard combines loan-level market pricing and trading data with risk analytics for GSE-eligible and non-QM loans. It enables loan investors unprecedented visibility into where loans are currently trading and insight on how investors can currently achieve excess risk-adjusted yields.

Dashboard

The dashboard highlights Dominium’s proprietary loan investment and allocation approach, which allows investors to evaluate any set of residential loans available for bid. Leveraging RiskSpan’s collateral models and risk analytics, Dominium’s software helps investors maximize yield or spread subject to investment constraints, such as a risk budget, or management constraints, such as concentration limits.

“Our strategic partnership with RiskSpan is a key component of our residential loan asset management operating platform ,” said Peter A. Simon, Founder and CEO of Dominium Advisors. “It has enabled us to provide clients with powerful risk analytics and data management capabilities in unprecedented ways.”

“The dashboard is a perfect complement to our suite of analytical tools,” noted Janet Jozwik, Senior Managing Director and Head of Product for RiskSpan’s Edge Platform. “We are excited to be a conduit for delivering this level of market color to our mortgage investor clients.”

The market color dashboard (and other RiskSpan reporting) can be accessed by registering for a free Edge Platform login at https://riskspan.com/request-access/.

### 

About RiskSpan, Inc. 

RiskSpan offers cloud-native SaaS analytics for on-demand market risk, credit risk, pricing and trading. With an unparalleled team of data science experts and technologists, RiskSpan is the leader in data as a service and end-to-end solutions for loan-level data management and analytics.

Its mission is to be the most trusted and comprehensive source of data and analytics for loans and structured finance investments. Learn more at www.riskspan.com.

About Dominium Advisors Dominium Advisors is a tech-enabled asset manager specializing in the acquisition and management of residential mortgage loans for insurance companies and other institutional investors. The firm focuses on newly originated residential mortgage loans made to high quality borrowers – GSE eligible, jumbo and non-QM. Its proprietary loan-level software makes possible the construction of loan portfolios that achieve investor defined objectives such as higher risk-adjusted yields and spreads or limited exposure to tail risk events. Learn more at dominiumadvisors.com.


RiskSpan Adds CRE, C&I Loan Analytics to Edge Platform

ARLINGTON, Va., March 23, 2023 – RiskSpan, a leading technology company and the most comprehensive source for data management and analytics for mortgage and structured products, has announced the addition of commercial real estate (CRE) and commercial and industrial (C&I) loan data intake, valuation, and risk analytics to its award-winning Edge Platform. This enhancement complements RiskSpan’s existing residential mortgage toolbox and provides clients with a comprehensive toolbox for constructing and managing diverse credit portfolios.

Now more than ever, banks and credit portfolio managers need tools to construct well diversified credit portfolios resilient to rate moves and to know the fair market values of their diverse credit assets.

The new support for CRE and C&I loans on the Edge Platform further cements RiskSpan’s position as a single-source provider for loan pricing and risk management analytics across multiple asset classes. The Edge Platform’s AI-driven Smart Mapping (tape cracking) tool lets clients easily work with CRE and C&I loan data from any format. Its forecasting tools let clients flexibly segment loan datasets and apply performance and pricing assumptions by segment to generate cash flows, pricing and risk analytics.

CRE and C&I loans have long been supported by the Edge Platform’s credit loss accounting module, where users provided such loans in the Edge standard data format. The new Smart Mapping support simplifies data intake, and the new support for valuation and risk (including market risk) analytics for these assets makes Edge a complete toolbox for constructing and managing diverse portfolios that include CRE and C&I loans. These tools include cash flow projections with loan-level precision and stress testing capabilities. They empower traders and asset managers to visualize the risks associated with their portfolios like never before and make more informed decisions about their investments.

Comprehensive details of this and other new capabilities are available by requesting a no-obligation demo at riskspan.com.

### 

About RiskSpan, Inc. 

RiskSpan offers cloud-native SaaS analytics for on-demand market risk, credit risk, pricing and trading. With our data science experts and technologists, we are the leader in data as a service and end-to-end solutions for loan-level data management and analytics.

Our mission is to be the most trusted and comprehensive source of data and analytics for loans and structured finance investments. Learn more at www.riskspan.com.


RiskSpan Incorporates Flexible Loan Segmentation into Edge Platform

ARLINGTON, Va., March 3, 2023 — RiskSpan, a leading technology company and the most comprehensive source for data management and analytics for residential mortgage and structured products, has announced the incorporation of Flexible Loan Segmentation functionality into its award-winning Edge Platform.

The new functionality makes Edge the only analytical platform offering users the option of alternating between the speed and convenience of rep-line-level analysis and the unmatched precision of loan-level analytics, depending on the purpose of their analysis.

For years, the cloud-native Edge Platform has stood alone in its ability to offer the computational scale necessary to perform loan-level analyses and fully consider each loan’s individual contribution to a mortgage or MSR portfolio’s cash flows. This level of granularity is of paramount importance when pricing new portfolios, taking property-level considerations into account, and managing tail risks from a credit/servicing cost perspective.

Not every analytical use case justifies the computational cost of a full loan-level analysis, however. For situations where speed requirements dictate the use of rep lines (such as for daily or intra-day hedging needs), the Edge Platform’s new Flexible Loan Segmentation affords users the option to perform valuation and risk analysis at the rep line level.

Analysts, traders and investors take advantage of Edge’s flexible calculation specification to run various rate and HPI scenarios, key rate durations, and other calculation-intensive metrics in an efficient and timely manner. Segment-level results run at both loan and rep line level can be easily compared to assess the impacts of each approach. Individual rep lines are easily rolled up to quickly view results on portfolio subcomponents and on the portfolio as a whole.

Comprehensive details of this and other new capabilities are available by requesting a no-obligation demo at riskspan.com.

This new functionality is the latest in a series of enhancements that further the Edge Platform’s objective of providing frictionless insight to Agency MBS traders and investors, knocking down barriers to efficient, clear and data-driven valuation and risk assessment.

###

About RiskSpan, Inc. 

RiskSpan offers cloud-native SaaS analytics for on-demand market risk, credit risk, pricing and trading. With our data science experts and technologists, we are the leader in data as a service and end-to-end solutions for loan-level data management and analytics. Our mission is to be the most trusted and comprehensive source of data and analytics for loans and structured finance investments. Learn more at www.riskspan.com.


Edge Platform Adds Fannie and Freddie Social Index Data

ARLINGTON, Va., January 18, 2023 — RiskSpan, a leading technology company and the most comprehensive source for data management and analytics for residential mortgage and structured products, has announced the incorporation of Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s Single-Family Social Index data into its award-winning Edge Platform.

Fannie and Freddie rolled out their social index disclosures in November 2022. Consisting of two measures, the Social Criteria Score and the Social Density Score, the social index discloses the share of loans in a given pool that are made to low-income, minority, and first-time homebuyers, as well as mortgages on homes in low-income areas, minority tracts, high-needs rural areas, and designated disaster areas. Manufactured housing loans also contribute to the score.

Rather than classifying each individual bond as “social” or “not social,” the new Agency data available on the Edge Platform assigns every pool two fully transparent scores – one indicating the percentage of loans in a pool that satisfy any of the defined social criteria, the other reflecting how many criteria a pool’s average loan satisfies.

Taken together, these enable Agency traders and investors to view and understand each pool along a full continuum of the social index, as opposed to simply assigning a binary social designation. Because borrowers behave differently at various places along this continuum, traders and investors fine-tune their analytics in ways never before possible to isolate pools with potentially slower prepayment speeds in a way that transcends what has traditionally been available using so-called “spec. pool” stories alone.

Comprehensive details of this and other new capabilities are available by requesting a no-obligation live demo at riskspan.com.

This new functionality is the latest in a series of enhancements that further the Edge Platform’s objective of providing frictionless insight to Agency MBS traders and investors, knocking down barriers to efficient, clear and data-driven valuation and risk assessment.

### 

About RiskSpan, Inc. 

RiskSpan offers cloud-native SaaS analytics for on-demand market risk, credit risk, pricing and trading. With our data science experts and technologists, we are the leader in data as a service and end-to-end solutions for loan-level data management and analytics.

Our mission is to be the most trusted and comprehensive source of data and analytics for loans and structured finance investments.

Rethink loan and structured finance data. Rethink your analytics. Learn more at www.riskspan.com.

Get a Demo

About RiskSpan, Inc. 

RiskSpan offers cloud-native SaaS analytics for on-demand market risk, credit risk, pricing and trading. With our data science experts and technologists, we are the leader in data as a service and end-to-end solutions for loan-level data management and analytics. 

Our mission is to be the most trusted and comprehensive source of data and analytics for loans and structured finance investments. 

Rethink loan and structured finance data. Rethink your analytics. Learn more at www.riskspan.com. 

Media contact: Timothy Willis 


HECM Loan Data, Smart Assumptions, and Cross-Sector Trade Impact Headline New Edge Platform Functionality

ARLINGTON, Va., December 8, 2022RiskSpan, a leading technology company and the most comprehensive source for data management and analytics for residential mortgage and structured products, has announced a flurry of new functionality on its award-winning Edge Platform.

GNMA HECM Datasets and Involuntary Prepayment Breakdown: The GNMA HECM dataset is now available to subscribers in Edge’s Historical Performance module, allowing market participants to find performance differentials within FHA reverse mortgage data. As with conventional datasets available on Edge, users slice and dice by any loan attribute to create S-curves, aging curves, time series and other decision-useful analytics.

Edge users also can now parse GNMA buyout metrics by reason, based on whether individual loans were in delinquency, loss mitigation, or foreclosure when they were removed from the security.

Smart Assumptions: Rather than relying on static assumptions to back-fill missing credit scores, DTIs, LTVs and other data on loan acquisition tapes, the Edge Platform has begun employing a smart, dynamic approach to creating more educated estimates of missing assumptions based on other loan characteristics. Users have the option of accepting these assumptions or substituting their own.

Cross-Sector Trade Impact: As a provider of loan and securities analytics, RiskSpan is making it easier to forecast the combined performance of loan and securities portfolios together in a single view. This allows traders and analysts tools to evaluate the risk and return impact of not only different loan selections or bond selections but also cross-sector reallocation.

These new enhancements all further the Edge Platform’s purpose of providing frictionless insight, knocking down barriers to efficient, clear and data-driven valuation and risk assessment.

Comprehensive details of this and other new capabilities are available by requesting a no-obligation live demo at riskspan.com.

This new functionality is the latest in a series of enhancements that is making the Edge Platform increasingly indispensable for Agency MBS traders and investors.

Get a Demo

About RiskSpan, Inc. 

RiskSpan offers cloud-native SaaS analytics for on-demand market risk, credit risk, pricing and trading. With our data science experts and technologists, we are the leader in data as a service and end-to-end solutions for loan-level data management and analytics. 

Our mission is to be the most trusted and comprehensive source of data and analytics for loans and structured finance investments. 

Rethink loan and structured finance data. Rethink your analytics. Learn more at www.riskspan.com. 

Media contact: Timothy Willis 


RiskSpan Wins Risk as a Service Category for Third Consecutive Year, Rises 6 Places in RiskTech100® 2023 Ranking

ARLINGTON, Va., December 6, 2022RiskSpan’s Edge Platform, the only single solution to include data management, models, and analytics on fully scalable, cloud-native architecture, wins “Risk as a Service” category for a third consecutive year in Chartis Research’s vaunted RiskTech100® ranking of the world’s 100 top risk technology companies.

RiskSpan was also called out as a most significant mover, climbing 6 places in the overall ranking and improving its position for the fourth year in a row.

Chartis_RiskTech100 “RiskSpan’s strong innovation in data management helped drive its six-place rise in the rankings this year,’ said Sid Dash, Research Director at Chartis. ‘The company has won the RaaS award for three consecutive years, reflecting its tech-centric and pragmatic approach in a key area of the risk management space.” 

Licensed by some of the largest asset managers, broker/dealers, hedge funds, mortgage REITs and insurance companies in the U.S., the Edge Platform is a fully managed risk solution across all asset classes with specialization in residential mortgage and structured products.  

 This year’s award reflects the Edge Platform’s unique ability to help users find alpha, execute transactions with ease, and effectively manage portfolio risks,” noted Bernadette Kogler, RiskSpan’s co-founder and CEO. It is satisfying to be recognized for our continued efforts to help clients transform their business with modern workflows and operations to optimize productivity, cost, and resilience.” 

CONTACT US

About RiskSpan, Inc.  

RiskSpan offers cloud-native SaaS analytics for on-demand market risk, credit risk, pricing and trading. With our data science experts and technologists, we are the leader in data as a service and end-to-end solutions for loan-level data management and analytics. 

Our mission is to be the most trusted and comprehensive source of data and analytics for loans and structured finance investments. 

Rethink loan and structured finance data. Rethink your analytics. Learn more at www.riskspan.com. 

 About Chartis Research:  

Chartis Research is the leading provider of research and analysis on the global market for risk technology. It is part of Infopro Digital, which owns market-leading brands such as Risk and WatersTechnology. Chartis’ goal is to support enterprises as they drive business performance through improved risk management, corporate governance and compliance, and to help clients make informed technology and business decisions by providing in-depth analysis and actionable advice on virtually all aspects of risk technology.  

 Media contact:  Timothy Willis 


Incorporating Covid-Era Mortgage Data Without Skewing Your Models

What we observed during Covid represents a radical departure from what we observed pre-Covid. To what extent do these observations impact long-term trends observed for mortgage performance? Should these data fundamentally impact the way in which we think about the effects borrower, loan and macroeconomic characteristics have on mortgage performance? Or do we need to simply account for them as a short-term blip?


The process of modeling mortgage defaults and prepayments typically begins with identifying long-term trends and reference values. These aid in creating the baseline forecasts that undergird the model in its most simplistic form. Modelers then begin looking for deviations from this baseline created by specific loan, borrower, and property characteristics, as well as by key macroeconomic variables.

Identifying these relationships enables modelers to begin quantifying the extent to which micro factors like income, credit score, and loan-to-value ratios interact with macro indicators like the unemployment rate to cause prepayments and defaults to depart from their baseline. Data observations aggregated over extended periods give a comprehensive picture possible of these relationships.

In practice, the human behavior underlying these and virtually all economic models tends to change over time. Modelers account for this by making short-term corrections based on observations from the most recent time periods. This approach of tweaking long-term trends based on recent performance works reasonably well under most circumstances. One could reasonably argue, however, that tweaking existing models using performance data collected during the Covid-19 era presents a unique set of challenges.

What was observed during Covid represents a radical departure from what was observed pre-Covid. To what extent do these observations impact long-term trends and reference values. Should these data fundamentally impact the way in which we think about the effects borrower, loan and macroeconomic characteristics have on mortgage performance? Or do we need to simply account for them as a short-term blip?

SPEAK TO AN EXPERT

How Covid-era mortgage data differs

When it comes to modeling mortgage performance, we generally think of three sets of factors: 1) macroeconomic conditions, 2) loan and borrower characteristics, and 3) property characteristics. In determining how to account for Covid-era data in our modeling, we first must attempt to evaluate its impact on these factors. Three macroeconomic factors have played an especially significant role recently. First, as reflected in the chart below, we experienced a significant home-price decline during the 2008 financial crisis but a steady increase since then. Covid Era

Second, mortgage rates continued to decline for the most part during the crisis and beyond. There were brief periods when they increased, but they remained low by and large. Covid Era

The third piece is the unemployment rate. Unemployment spiked to around 10 percent during the financial crisis and then slowly declined. Covid Era

When home prices declined in the past, we typically saw the government attempt to respond to it by reducing interest rates. This created something of a correlation between home prices and mortgage rates. Looking at this from a purely statistical viewpoint, the only thing the historical data shows is that falling home prices bring about a decline in mortgage rates. (And rising home prices bring about higher interest rates, though to a far lesser degree.) We see something similar with unemployment. Falling unemployment is correlated with rising home prices.

But then Covid arrives and with it some things we had not observed previously. All the “known” correlations among these macroeconomic variables broke down. For example, the unemployment rate spikes to 15 percent within just a couple of months and yet has no negative impact at all on home prices. Home prices, in fact, continue to rise, supported by the very generous unemployment benefits provided during Covid pandemic.

This greatly complicates the modeling. Here we had these variable relationships that appeared steady over a period of decades, and all of our modeling was being done (knowingly or unknowingly) relying on these correlations, and suddenly all these correlations are breaking down.

What does this mean for forecasting prepayments? The following chart shows prepayments over time by vintage. We see extremely high prepayment rates between early 2020 (the start of the pandemic) and early 2022 (when rates started rising). This makes sense.

Covid Era

Look at what happens to our forecasts, however, when rates begin to increase. The following chart reflects the models predicting a much steeper drop-off in prepayments than what was actually observed for a July 2021 issuance Fannie Mae major of coupon 2.0. These mortgage loans with no refinance incentive are prepaying faster than what would be expected based on the historical data.

Covid Era

What is causing this departure?

The most plausible explanation relates to an observed increase in cash-out refinances caused by the recent run-up in home prices and resulting in many homeowners suddenly finding themselves with a lot of home equity to tap into.  Pre-Covid , cash-outs accounted for between a third and a quarter of refinances. Now, with virtually no one in the money for a rate-and-term refinance, cash-outs are accounting for over 80 percent of them.

We learn from this that we need to incorporate the amount of home equity gained by borrowers into our prepayment modeling.

 Modeling Credit Performance

Of course, Covid’s impacts were felt even more acutely in delinquency rates than in prepays. As the following chart shows, a borrower that was 1-month delinquent during Covid had a 75 percent probability of being 2-months delinquent the following month.

Covid Era

This is clearly way outside the norm of what was observed historically and compels us to ask some hard questions when attempting to fit a model to this data.

The long-term average of “two to worse” transitions (the percentage of 60-day delinquencies that become 90-day delinquencies (or worse) the following month) is around 40 percent. But we’re now observing something closer to 50 percent. Do we expect this to continue in the future, or do we expect it to revert back to the longer-term average. We observe a similar issue in other transitions, as illustrated below. The rates appear to be stabilizing at higher levels now relative to where they were pre-Covid. This is especially true of more serious delinquencies.

Covid Era

How do we respond to this? What is the best way to go about combining this pre-Covid and post-Covid data?

Principles for handling Covid-era mortgage data

One approach would be to think about Covid data as outliers that should be ignored. At the other extreme, we could simply accept the observed data and incorporate it without any special considerations. A split-the-difference third approach would have us incorporate the new data with some sort of weighting factor for use in future stress scenarios without completely casting aside the long-term reference values that had stood the test of time prior to the pandemic.

This third approach requires us to apply the following guiding principles:

  1. Assess assumed correlations between driving macro variables: For example, don’t allow the model to assume that increasing unemployment will lead to higher home prices just because it happened once during a pandemic.
  2. Choose short-term calibrations carefully. Do not allow models to be unduly influenced by blindly giving too much weight to what has happened in the past two years.
  3. Determine whether the new data in fact reflects a regime shift. How long will the new regime last?
  4. Avoid creating a model that will break down during future unusual periods.
  1. Prepare for other extremes. Incorporate what was learned into future stress testing
  1. Build models that allow sensitivity analyses and are easy to change/tune. Models need to be sufficiently flexible that they can be tuned in response to macroeconomic events in a matter of weeks, rather than taking months or years to design and build an entirely new model.

Covid-era mortgage data presents modelers with a unique challenge. How to appropriately consider it without overweighting it. These general guidelines are a good place to start. For ideas specific to your portfolio, contact a RiskSpan representative.

SPEAK TO AN EXPERT


Get Started
Log in

Linkedin   

risktech2024