In June, the market got its first look at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac “expanded delinquency” states. The Enterprises are now reporting delinquency states out to 24 months to better account for loans that are seriously delinquent and not repurchased under the extended timeframe for repurchase of delinquent loans announced in 2020. In this short post, we analyze those pipelines and what they could mean for buyouts in certain spec pool stories.
First, we look at the extended pipeline for some recent non-spec cohorts. The table below summarizes some major 30yr cohorts and their months delinquent. We aggregate the delinquencies that are more than 6 months delinquent[1] for ease of exposition.
Recent-vintage GSE loans with higher coupons show a higher level of “chronically delinquent” loans, similar to the trends we see in GNMA loans.
Digging deeper, we filtered for loans with FICO scores below 680. Chronically delinquent loan buckets in this cohort are marginally more prevalent relative to non-spec borrowers. Not unexpectedly, this suggests a credit component to these delinquencies.
Finally, we filtered for loans with high LTVs at origination. The chronically delinquent buckets are lower than the low FICO sector but still present an overhang of potential GSE repurchases in spec pools.
It remains to be seen whether some of these borrowers will be able to resume their original payments — in which case they can remain in the pool with a forbearance payment due at payoff — or if the loans will be repurchased by the GSEs at 24 months delinquent for modification or other workout. If the higher delinquencies lead to the second outcome, the market could see an uptick in involuntary speeds on some spec pool categories in the next 6-12 months.
Contact us if you are interested in seeing variations on this theme. Using Edge, we can examine any loan characteristic and generate a S-curve, aging curve, or time series.
[1] The individual delinquency states are available for each bucket, contact us for details.
